Archive for the 'Market Trends' Category
Clatsop County Real Estate March Snapshot
source: Clatsop MLS
A very quick and dirty way to get a feel for what the market is doing right now is to compare recently under contract listings with the number new listings during that time. Is the inventory shrinking? Growing? This will tell you quickly. Read the rest of this entry »
Clatsop County Real Estate Update: Q1 2011
Q1 Closed Sales 2010 vs. 2011
Clatsop County home sales (total units) were down 14% in the first quarter compared to one year ago. Read the rest of this entry »
NAR Says Existing Home Sales Down in Feb. 2011
source: Clatsop MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
WASHINGTON (March 21, 2011) – Existing-home sales fell in February following three straight monthly increases, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
The only thing missing from the above headline is “unexpectedly”. I don’t normally pay a lot of attention to national real estate news because as they say “real estate is local”. National trends averaged over every metro area in the country do not usually reflect what’s happening here on the coast, and I’d venture to say they don’t match up exactly with any market.
Take a look at the chart above I created from data in the Clatsop MLS. Yes, sales in February are lower than in January. Heck, it’s even lower than the 5.something percent figure given by the NAR report. Notice I put those crude red boxes around Jan/Feb of this year and last year? Take a look at the numbers in the 4th column, under the heading Sold Listings. Anything grab your attention? Correct! The number of listings sold in January and February of this year is almost exactly opposite of the number sold in the same months last year. A difference of just 2 homes closed in the first two months of this year vs. last. Is it less? Sure. Is it remarkable? No. Now, if the trend continues into next month, and comparing Q1 2011 vs. Q1 2010 yields similar results then maybe we’ve got something worth talking about. We shall see.
edit: Something notable from the chart is the difference in the number of new listings in the first part of the year compared with last year. (120 vs. 147) I’ll keep an eye on this and report back.
There’s two points to my rambling here:
1. All real estate is local. When you see national statistics quoted, they are almost never inline with what’s actually happening on the ground where you live. It could be better or worse.
2. In a small market like ours, tracking the market changes month over month can give you unreliable statistics and here’s why. When you are dealing with montly sales of 20 or 30 units, a change in just a few sold listings month over month results in a 5-10% change when you do the math. It gets even worse with a very small area like Arch Cape. If there was 2 homes sold in one month and just 1 sold the next, does that mean a 50% decline? Not in my book. However, if the trend continued over several consecutive months we’ve got something worth talking about.
Market Snapshot: Jan. 22-28, 2011
Recent Clatsop County home sales for the week ending January 28, 2011:
| Address | List Price | Sold Price | Days on Market |
| 89048 Ocean Dr., Warrenton | $750,000 | $675,000 | 324 |
| 197 Marion St., Gearhart | $655,000 | $560,000 | 308 |
| 1720 Southwind Cr., Hammond | $259,900 | $259,000 | 151 |
| 92879 Pearson Rd., Astoria | $212,000 | $212,000 | 123 |
| 91834 Hwy 104 Warrenton | $225,000 | $188,300 | 151 |
| 1835 1st St., Hammond | $176,500 | $153,568 | 167 |
Source: Clatsop MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Market Snapshot: Jan. 15-21, 2011
Recent Clatsop County home sales for the week ending January 21, 2011:
| Address | List Price | Sold Price | Days on Market |
| 90248 Shoreline Dr. Warrenton | $277,000 | $270,000 | 147 |
| 702 F St., Gearhart | $269,000 | $255,000 | 190 |
| 50 SW 14th Pl., Warrenton | $199,900 | $197,000 | 107 |
| 349 6th Ave., Seaside | $121,770 | $122,500 | 97 |
| 708 Lexington Ave., Astoria | $89,900 | $89,000 | 23 |
Source: Clatsop MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Market Snapshot: Jan. 8-14, 2011
Recent Clatsop County home sales for the week ending January 14, 2011:
| Address | List Price | Sold Price | Days on Market |
| 89153 Pinehurst Rd., Gearhart | $875,000 | $875,000 | 105 |
| 2107 Pine Ridge Dr., Gearhart | $368,000 | $351,000 | 313 |
| 460 16th Ave., Seaside | $308,000 | $285,000 | 53 |
| 3429 Harrison Ave., Astoria | $269,500 | $255,000 | 472 |
| 1530 Lea Way, Seaside | $169,900 | $162,000 | 496 |
Source: Clatsop MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Market Snapshot: Jan. 1-7, 2011
Recent home sales for the week ending January 7, 2011
|
Address |
List Price |
Sold Price |
Days on Market |
|
5276 Ash St., Astoria |
$295,000 |
$279,000 |
180 |
|
3547 Harrison, Astoria |
$125,000 |
$110,000 |
56 |
|
198 E Monroe, Cannon Beach |
$369,900 |
$365,000 |
124 |
|
2471 Sunset Blvd., Seaside |
$650,000 |
$630,000 |
303 |
|
33222 Deerfield, Warrenton |
$259,000 |
$259,000 |
52 |
Source: Clatsop MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Did the Real Estate Market Improve in 2010?
2010 has come to a close (phew!) and by now most of the sales activity has been reported in the Clatsop MLS. I’ve been spending some time analyzing the sales data and comparing last year to the previous two years looking for trends or indications of where the market is going. I’ll be posting further analysis of the data here over the next few weeks and will also include figures broken down by city and neighborhood for your viewing pleasure.
Good News: More Home Sold in 2010 Than Previous 2 Years
Annual Units Sold 2008-2010
The number of (single family, not including condos/townhomes) homes sold did increase by about 15% over 2009, and is about 5% higher than 2008 levels. One thing I’ve noticed, but do not yet have the stats to back up, is that many buyers are starting to get used to the status quo and seem to be less tepid about getting into the market. Thankfully for a large number of first time buyers last year the market did show signs of life, and even with the usual slow down associated with the holiday season there is activity out there and people looking.
Bad News: Home Values Continued Decline in 2010
Average Home Price 2008-2010
And now the bad news: the average sales price for homes in Clatsop County decreased again last year by a little over 7%. One thing I should point out is this represents the change in average sales price, not the actual value of a specific property over the past two years. The change in value for a specific property during that time could more or less depending on a number of factors including the location.
Trends
I haven’t completed my analysis of the market data for the past year compared to years prior, but it does seem interesting to me that as values decreased the number of homes sold increased. Are we beginning to level out? Maybe. Are we heading for a double dip? Maybe.
Source: Clatsop MLS. Information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
Map: Astoria, Oregon Sold Homes (2010)
I found a pretty sweet mapping tool that allows you to create a google maps mashup from data in a spreadsheet. The map below contains all the closed single family, condo and townhouse sales reported in the Clatsop MLS during 2010. The mapping does appear to be pretty accurate, but as always the quality of the data is not guaranteed.
Pretty cool huh?
With a little more tweaking I plan on posting similar maps for every MLS area (neighborhood) I can get data for. I’m thinking it’s a pretty slick visual resource for both home buyers and home owners. Want to know what the house down the street sold for? Just navigate to your neighborhood, find the home on the map and click the marker: Instant access to the sold date, sold price and more details about the property.
Would you find a map like this useful? Let me know in the comments.
disclaimer
source: 2010 Clatsop Multiple Listing Service. Data deemed reliable, but not guaranteed accurate.
Clatsop County Sales Up 20% YTD vs. 2009
Clatsop County SFR closed sales up 20% YTD
Surprised? Yes. Amazed? Not exactly… I must admit, when I began looking at year to date MLS sales data I didn’t expect this: The total number of closed (single family) sales in Clatsop County in 2010 for the period Jan. 1-Nov. 30 has surpassed both 2008 & 2009 for the same period. In what many consider a down market, one might assume that “nothing is selling”. I’m asked daily if homes are selling and people are genuinely surprised when I tell them yes.
Not every property type has enjoyed the same result, let’s take a look at condo’s and townhomes:
YTD Closed Sales- Condo/Townhouse
The condo market has been depressed for the past few years. I would consider the mostly flat level of sales a win all things considered. We’ve seen more than one new condominium development auction multiple unsold units after failing to sell them in a timely manner. I haven’t run the numbers, but I would wager that the condo and townhouse market has also seen a larger decline in value compared to other property types.
Where are all these sales taking place? For the most part even with a steady number of units sold we’re seeing priced pushed further down, that could be the reason for the uptick in 2010. In 2008 home buyers were too scared to buy unless their situation forced them to do so, in 2009 the level of uncertainty was still high. At some point in 2010 buyer confidence has began to come back helped by the tax credit offered earlier this year. Investors have also returned to the market leading some to speculate that we’ve almost reached the bottom.
Here’s what the single family sales look like broken down by city:
2010 YTD SFR Closed Sales By City
Nothing too shocking here, Astoria has the highest number of closed sales in Clatsop County but also is the largest city. Note the city of Warrenton in 3rd place. That’s a strong number considering the rather small population base compared with Astoria and Seaside. In fact, if you combine the number of closed sales of both Warrenton and Hammond it’s more than Seaside.
To answer the question, yes homes are selling. Some in a matter of days not months, and multiple offers on a decent property isn’t unusual.
What do you think the new year will bring? More of the same? Another decline? Let’s hear it in the comments.
source: Clatsop Multiple Listing Service. Data deemed reliable, not guaranteed accurate.
Real Estate Markets
Astoria
From historic Victorian and craftsman homes to newer neighborhoods like Knappa, Svensen, Mill Pond Village, River Point, Olney, and more, Astoria, Oregon, offers something for everyone. That’s why so many people choose to make Astoria, Oregon, their home.
Warrenton
Today, Warrenton, Oregon, is a retail center for the county and one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Even though it’s a popular area, the city does a great job of retaining its natural charm. The mix of thriving city and vast natural areas make Warrenton, Oregon, the ideal place to live as it offers a little something for everyone.
Hammond
One visit to Hammond, Oregon, and you’ll agree it’s definitely a unique place to live. Whether you’re out enjoying popular activities like clamming or crab digging with the locals or you come upon on a pirate wedding taking place at the site of the Peter Iredale shipwreck during a walk on the beach, you be hard pressed to find a more exceptional locale than Hammond, Oregon.
Gearhart
Today, Gearhart, Oregon, remains a relaxing place to live and vacation, especially for people that enjoy a mixture of relaxing quiet, exhilarating golf, and stunning nature. This coastal town is a pleasant mix of beach homes and charming neighborhoods like Highlands, Pinehurst, Reserve at Gearhart, Pacific Palisades, Shamrock Pines, Beach Estates, Gin Ridge, and Little Beach.
Seaside
This exciting community has many different types of homes for residents to choose from — from beach homes to condominium complexes west of the Necanicum River. Popular neighborhoods in Seaside include Ocean Cove Estates, Thompson Falls, Stillwater Heights, Sunset Hills, and Skyline.
Cannon Beach
Today, Cannon Beach, Oregon, remains true to its roots as a small town. While it’s a town with plenty to do, local officials keep development at bay to preserve the charm of Cannon Beach. The area is an extremely popular vacation destination for people looking for a little rest and relaxation. In fact, there are likely more second homes in Cannon Beach than full time resident homes
Arch Cape
Today, Arch Cape, Oregon, is pretty much the same tranquil place it’s always been. It’s an unincorporated area of mostly homes, inns, and nature that is the perfect place to live. If you’re looking for a place that will transport you from the hustle and bustle of today’s world so you can lose yourself in the wonder of nature, you’ll love Arch Cape, Oregon.
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Neighborhoods
- Arch Cape
- Astoria
- Cannon Beach
- Clatsop Plains
- Country Club Estates
- Cove Beach / Falcon Cove
- Cullaby Lake
- Elsie Jewell
- Gearhart East
- Gearhart West
- Hamlet
- Hammond
- Jeffers Gardens
- John Day Fernhill
- Knappa Svensen
- Lewis & Clark Youngs River
- Manzanita
- Olney
- River Point
- Seaside East
- Seaside North
- Seaside South
- Smith Lake
- Sunset Lake
- Surf Pines
- Warrenton
